In 2019, South Africa operated six petroleum refineries. Today, only two remain functional. This isn’t a temporary disruption — it’s a permanent restructuring of how Africa’s most industrialised economy sources its fuel. For procurement teams, supply chain directors, and energy strategists across the continent, the implications are profound.

The Collapse in Numbers

The closures happened in rapid succession. SAPREF, the country’s largest refinery jointly owned by BP and Shell in Durban, was mothballed in 2020 following an explosion and has shown no signs of restarting. Engen’s Durban refinery was converted into an import-only terminal. PetroSA’s gas-to-liquids facility in Mossel Bay has been effectively dormant for years. Even the remaining two — Natref in Sasolburg and Astron in Cape Town — face regular maintenance shutdowns that send shockwaves through the entire supply chain.

The result is stark: South Africa’s import dependency has jumped from approximately 40% in 2019 to over 60% today. For a market consuming billions of litres annually across diesel, petrol, jet fuel, and speciality products, this represents a fundamental shift in how fuel reaches end users.

Why Domestic Refining Won’t Recover

The economics of restarting mothballed refineries are punishing. SAPREF alone would require an estimated R15–20 billion in capital expenditure to meet Clean Fuels 2 specifications — an investment that neither BP nor Shell have shown willingness to make in the current regulatory and market environment.

Meanwhile, global refining overcapacity in the Middle East, India, and East Asia means that imported refined products are often cheaper than domestically produced alternatives. The UAE alone has added significant refining capacity through projects like the ADNOC Ruwais expansion, producing export-grade diesel, jet fuel, and petrol at world-class efficiency levels.

The question for South African buyers is no longer whether they will import fuel. It is whether their import supply chain is robust enough to sustain their operations.

What This Means for Buyers

Mining Companies

With diesel representing 51% of total fuel consumption and mining as the single largest industrial consumer, the sector faces acute exposure to supply disruptions. Mines operating in Mpumalanga, Limpopo, and the Northern Cape often depend on a single supply channel routed through Durban port and the inland pipeline. When that pipeline faces constraints — or when a refinery shutdown reduces available product — operations that consume millions of litres per month have nowhere to turn.

Airlines and Airports

Jet fuel shortages at OR Tambo International, which consumes 3.6 million litres daily, have become a recurring feature of South African aviation. Airlines are forced into costly fuel-tankering strategies, adding weight and reducing payload capacity on inbound flights. For a sector already operating on thin margins, this is unsustainable.

Independent Distributors

South Africa’s growing independent fuel sector — companies like Gulfstream Energy, Elegant Fuel, and Quest Petroleum — are increasingly competing for imported product. Those who secure direct international supply relationships gain a decisive competitive advantage in winning mining, government, and commercial tenders.

The Gulf Supply Solution

The UAE sits at the centre of the world’s most productive refining corridor. ADNOC and ENOC operate refineries that produce the full spectrum of products South Africa needs — from 50ppm and 10ppm diesel to Jet A-1, petrol, and marine fuels — at specifications that meet or exceed South African standards.

The shipping route from Jebel Ali and Fujairah to Durban, Cape Town, and Richards Bay is well-established, with transit times that support both spot and term supply arrangements. CIF delivery eliminates the shipping complexity for buyers, while LC-backed transactions provide payment security for both sides.

For South African buyers navigating the post-refinery landscape, the Gulf-to-Africa corridor isn’t just an alternative — it’s becoming the primary supply channel. The organisations that establish these relationships now will be the ones with supply security for the decade ahead.

Every day, OR Tambo International Airport in Johannesburg burns through 3.6 million litres of Jet A-1 aviation fuel. It is the busiest airport on the African continent, the gateway through which the majority of South Africa’s international tourism and business travel flows. And increasingly, it is running on fumes.

Since 2022, South Africa has experienced repeated episodes of jet fuel rationing. Airlines have been forced to cancel flights, reduce loads, and implement costly fuel-tankering strategies — carrying extra fuel from departure airports to avoid relying on South African supply. For a country whose tourism sector generates over R200 billion in annual GDP contribution, the situation has moved from inconvenience to economic threat.

The Root Cause

The arithmetic is simple and unforgiving. South Africa has two operational refineries serving a country of 60 million people and dozens of airports. Natref in Sasolburg, operated by Sasol, produces jet fuel that feeds the Durban-to-Johannesburg pipeline. Astron Energy (Glencore) in Cape Town serves the Western Cape. When either undergoes planned maintenance — typically for several weeks each year — the knock-on effects ripple across the entire aviation network.

Unplanned disruptions are worse. A fire, equipment failure, or labour action at either refinery doesn’t just reduce supply — it can eliminate it entirely for a region. There is almost no buffer stock in the system. South Africa’s strategic petroleum reserves focus on crude oil, not refined jet fuel, so there is no national stockpile to draw upon during shortages.

The Airline Impact

Airlines have limited options when jet fuel isn’t available. The most common response is fuel-tankering: carrying additional fuel from the departure airport to reduce dependence on fuel at the South African destination. This works — but at significant cost. Extra fuel means extra weight, which means higher fuel burn, reduced passenger or cargo payload, and in some cases, route-distance limitations.

For South Africa’s domestic carriers — FlySafair with its 36-aircraft fleet commanding over 60% of the domestic market, SAA in its post-restructuring phase, and Airlink operating 64 aircraft across 50 destinations — the situation is particularly acute. Domestic flights cannot tanker meaningful fuel volumes. They are entirely dependent on local supply.

When a refinery goes down, airlines don’t have weeks to find alternatives. They have days. Sometimes hours.

Why Existing Supply Channels Fail

South Africa’s aviation fuel supply is concentrated through a narrow set of intermediaries operating between refineries and airports. The FIASA (Fuels Industry Association of South Africa) consortium manages much of the airport fuel infrastructure. This system was designed for an era when domestic refineries could meet national demand. It was not built for a market that imports 60% of its fuel.

The import infrastructure exists — Durban port can receive refined product cargoes, and the pipeline to Gauteng has capacity. What’s missing is diversified international supply relationships. When every airline and airport depends on the same two refineries, channelled through the same intermediaries, a single point of failure affects everyone simultaneously.

The Direct Gulf Supply Model

UAE refineries produce Jet A-1 to the highest international standards — ASTM D1655 and AFQRJOS specification — in volumes that dwarf South Africa’s total consumption. The ADNOC refining complex alone has capacity to produce aviation fuel sufficient for multiple South African airports.

A direct supply channel from UAE refineries to South African airports provides three critical capabilities that the current system lacks:

• Supply independence — a channel that operates regardless of domestic refinery status, providing a buffer during shutdowns and surge demand periods.
• Scalability — the ability to increase volumes at relatively short notice, drawing on Gulf refining surplus rather than constrained domestic capacity.
• Price competition — direct refinery-to-airport supply eliminates intermediary margins, providing airlines with more competitive fuel procurement costs.

The shipping logistics are proven. The Jebel Ali/Fujairah-to-Durban route is a well-established clean product shipping lane. Transit times support both planned term deliveries and responsive spot cargoes for emergency supply situations. CIF delivery means the buyer receives product at port, with shipping, insurance, and documentation handled by the supplier.

What Needs to Happen

South Africa’s aviation sector needs to treat fuel supply diversification with the same urgency it applies to route planning and fleet management. This means establishing direct relationships with Gulf-origin suppliers who can deliver certified Jet A-1 to South African ports, working within FIASA and ACSA frameworks, and building the contractual infrastructure for both term and emergency supply.

The airlines and airports that move first will be the ones with supply security when the next refinery shutdown occurs. Because it will occur. The only question is whether you have an alternative supply channel when it does.

On one side of the Indian Ocean sits the world’s most productive refining region, exporting surplus refined products into global markets. On the other sits Africa’s largest and most industrialised economy, with a fuel market valued at USD 8.4 billion and a supply deficit that grows wider every year. The Gulf-to-Africa petroleum corridor is not a future opportunity — it is a present imperative. And for UAE-based trading companies with refinery access, it represents one of the most compelling structural trade opportunities in energy today.

The Demand Side: South Africa’s Structural Deficit

South Africa’s fuel consumption is large, diversified, and growing. Diesel alone accounts for 51% of total consumption, driven by three sectors that form the backbone of the economy: mining, transport, and power generation. Eskom, the state utility, spent R12 billion on open-cycle gas turbine fuel in a single 11-month period. Mining companies across the Bushveld Complex, the Witwatersrand Basin, and the coal fields of Mpumalanga consume diesel at industrial scale, 24 hours a day, 365 days a year.

Meanwhile, South Africa’s domestic refining capacity is in structural decline. The closure and mothballing of four out of six refineries between 2019 and 2023 has pushed import dependency from 40% to 60% — and this figure will continue to climb. There is no credible pathway to restoring domestic refining capacity within the next decade. The capital requirements are too large, the regulatory environment too uncertain, and the global refining surplus too competitive.

The Supply Side: UAE Refining Surplus

The UAE’s refining sector has undergone a transformation in the opposite direction. ADNOC’s Ruwais complex, one of the world’s largest integrated refining and petrochemicals sites, has expanded capacity significantly. ENOC’s Jebel Ali refinery produces a full slate of refined products including ultra-low sulphur diesel, aviation fuel, and high-octane petrol.

Crucially, Gulf refineries produce to specifications that align with or exceed South African standards. EN 590 diesel, ASTM D1655 Jet A-1, and SANS-compliant petrol are all readily available from UAE refinery gates. This eliminates the specification risk that sometimes complicates other international supply routes.

The Gulf has surplus refined product. South Africa has a deficit. The Indian Ocean connects them. The trade thesis writes itself.

The Logistics Advantage

The Jebel Ali and Fujairah ports are among the world’s most efficient fuel loading terminals. The shipping route to South Africa’s primary import terminal at Durban is approximately 6,500 kilometres — a well-established clean product tanker route with competitive freight rates and predictable transit times.

Durban port connects via pipeline to the Gauteng region, which accounts for approximately 65% of South Africa’s total fuel demand. Cape Town and Richards Bay provide alternative discharge options for western and coastal markets. The logistics infrastructure to receive Gulf-origin product in South Africa already exists and has available capacity.

The Commercial Framework

International petroleum trade between the UAE and South Africa operates within well-established commercial frameworks:

• Pricing — benchmarked to S&P Global Platts assessments, the global standard for refined product pricing. This provides both parties with transparent, market-referenced pricing.
• Payment — irrevocable Letters of Credit at sight, confirmed by first-class international banks. This eliminates counterparty risk for both buyer and seller.
• Quality — independent SGS inspection at load port certifies quantity and quality before vessel departure. Full documentation pack includes Certificate of Quality, Certificate of Origin, and Bill of Lading.
• Insurance — marine cargo covered under open cover policies with A-rated underwriters, protecting full replacement value during transit.

These are not novel arrangements. They are standard practices in global petroleum trade, refined over decades of Gulf-to-global supply operations. The only novel element is the scale of South African demand that is now being redirected from domestic refining to international import.

Who Benefits

The Gulf-to-Africa corridor serves multiple buyer segments simultaneously. Mining companies secure diesel supply that doesn’t depend on two aging domestic refineries. Airlines and airports gain access to a Jet A-1 supply channel that operates independently of Natref and Astron maintenance schedules. Independent wholesalers gain direct refinery access that improves their margins and competitive positioning on tenders. Government and state-owned enterprises access compliant supply for power generation, defence, and public sector operations.

For UAE-based trading companies, the opportunity is equally compelling. South Africa’s fuel market is large, diversified, and structurally underserved. Import volumes will continue to grow as domestic refining capacity stagnates. Early movers who establish supply relationships, build buyer trust, and demonstrate reliable delivery will capture market share that compounds over time.

The Gulf-to-Africa petroleum corridor is not speculative. It is a trade route built on structural supply-demand fundamentals that will persist for the foreseeable future. The question for companies on both sides of the Indian Ocean is not whether to participate, but how quickly they can establish the relationships and infrastructure to capture their share of a USD 8.4 billion market.